Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, up from 3.9 per cent a year earlier, according to the World Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update, which found growth held up despite the conflict in the Middle East.
The October report, titled “Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities”, also found that federation revenues rose by 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, with Nigeria’s states the biggest winners.
Forecast raised
In a separate publication, its Africa Economic Update, the Bank raised its forecast for Nigeria’s growth in 2026 to 4.3 per cent and projected 4.4 per cent for both 2027 and 2028. It identified financial services, information and communications technology, and real estate as the main drivers.
Nigeria’s gross external reserves rose from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion at the end of August 2026, the Bank reported.
“On track”
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said the report shows his reform programme is on track. The findings land as the APC campaign makes the economy the centrepiece of its case for a second term, with the President telling youth supporters on 19 October that the country is “on the right trajectory.”
The Bank’s assessment was not without caution. It said the gains must be sustained, and noted that inflation remains elevated. Headline inflation stood at 15.39 per cent in August 2026, down from 23.14 per cent a year earlier, and the Central Bank of Nigeria cut its policy rate from 26.5 per cent to 23 per cent on 22 September.
The Bank’s figures sit close to those cited by the government. At the inauguration of the APC Presidential Campaign Council on 14 October, the Imo State Governor, Hope Uzodimma, cited growth of 4.43 per cent, while the President has spoken of growth of about 4.6 per cent.
As its title suggests, the report’s central finding concerns the states: higher revenues, it says, have reshaped state priorities, with states the biggest winners from the 69 per cent real rise in federation revenues.
Sources
- Nairametrics — World Bank raises Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.3%, sees 4.4% in 2027–28
- Arise News — Tinubu says economic reforms working as World Bank reports 4.2% growth, higher revenues, stronger reserves
- allAfrica — World Bank Nigeria Development Update coverage
- Rio Times — Nigeria explained 2026
This report is compiled from the public news reports and official statements listed above. Quotes and figures are attributed to those who made them.